29 Jun The Militarization of the Arctic: A New Theatre for War?

Orlando Recchi

School of Politics, Economics & Global Affairs, IE University, Madrid, Spain.

Bachelor’s in International Relations.

E-mail: orecchi.ieu2021@student.ie.edu.

Abstract

The Arctic is rapidly emerging as a global critical geopolitical flashpoint, courtesy of intensified military and economic competition among Russia, the United States, and China. Driven by climate change, projections suggest that the Arctic will be ice-free during the summer of 2025. The melting ice has unlocked previously inaccessible resources and maritime routes, such as the Northern Sea Route (NSR), substantially making the region increasingly strategically important. The great powers view these newly accessible and lucrative resources like salivating hounds eyeing fresh meat, eagerly positioning themselves to seize strategic advantage. As a consequence, Russia has expanded its Arctic military presence, the United States has strategically repositioned its forces, and China has increased economic investments with potential dual-use implications. Adopting a power politics, neo-realist framework, this paper explores how the current multipolar international order and inherent security dilemmas heighten the chances of unintended military escalation in the Arctic. Reflecting NATO’s Secretary General’s words, “We are not at war, but not at peace either”, this paper underscores the significance of governance gaps, strategic ambiguity, mutual mistrust, and the insatiable appetite for power, significantly exacerbating tensions between the great powers. Ultimately, it advocates robust multilateral governance structures, enhanced military-to-military communication channels, and proactive diplomatic engagements to mitigate risks and foster sustainable cooperation in the Arctic.

READ THE FULL ARTICLE HERE

Keywords: Arctic Militarization, Neo-Realism, Security Dilemma, Northern Sea Route, Multipolarity, Governance Frameworks, Military Escalation.