27 Jun Sinking States, Rising Diplomacy: The Fight for Sovereignty in a World of Rising Seas

Alexa Couttolenc Gutierrez

Law School, IE University, Madrid, Spain.

Bachelor’s in Politics, Philosophy, Law, and Economics.

E-mail: acouttolenc.ieu2021@student.ie.edu.

Abstract

Accelerating climate change forces low-lying island states to confront the unprecedented threat of physical disappearance. While the environmental risks are well documented, the consequences, both legal and political, remain uncertain. Statehood, under international law as it stands, is closely tied to territoriality, a criterion that becomes problematic when the territory itself is at risk of submersion. This article examines the diplomatic, legal, and political strategies undertaken by Small Island Developing States (SIDS) to preserve their sovereignty and statehood, but also to protect their populations from existential risk. Drawing on legal theory, state practice, and international negotiations, it analyzes how SIDS are reimagining the foundations of sovereignty and pressing the international community to adapt. First, the traditional legal framework defining statehood is explored, and the consequences of losing territory under current interpretations of the Montevideo Convention (1933) and UNCLOS are discussed. Consequently, the implications of state extinction for displaced populations, highlighting gaps in refugee law and nationality protection, are assessed. Through case studies and multilateral developments, it is demonstrated that SIDS are responding through coalition diplomacy, innovative legal proposals, and emerging governance models such as digital statehood and functional sovereignty. Finally, current limitations are evaluated, and three key recommendations are proposed: recognizing deterritorialized statehood, codifying fixed maritime baselines, and developing a legal regime for climate-displaced persons. The findings suggest that, while legal norms have begun to evolve, institutional reforms remain slow and uneven, and that, unless international law moves beyond its territorial foundations, states at risk of submersion may lose not only land but also legal identity and political agency. Thus, responding to this challenge requires not only doctrinal adaptation but also collective political will to ensure that climate-driven disappearance does not result in legal and human invisibility.

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Keywords: Climate Change, Sea-level Rise, Sovereignty, Small Island Developing States (SIDS)