29 Jun When Men Become Doctrine: Trump, Xi, and the Fate of Taiwan

Ian Charles Shepherd

School of Politics, Economics & Global Affairs, IE University, Madrid, Spain.

Bachelor’s in Business Administration & International Relations.

E-mail: ishepherd.ieu2022@student.ie.edu.

Abstract

This article analyses how Xi Jinping and Donald T rump, the key decision-makers for the People’s Republic of China and the United States, might handle Taiwan’s political future as they continue to govern. Using leadership-trait analysis, official policy statements, defense data, and macroeconomic indicators, it contrasts Xi’s strategy of gradual escalation with Trump’s preference for dramatic, precedent-breaking action. The study finds that President Xi’s ratcheting approach, visible in measured naval expansion, selective economic coercion, and global influence operations, makes a full-scale invasion before the late 2020s improbable because the expected costs of war still outweigh the perceived benefits. In contrast, a second T rump administration would very likely abandon long-standing strategic ambiguity, favour formal recognition of Taipei, alter the Taiwan Relations Act and overhaul industrial policy toward a Pacific confrontation. Scenario modelling shows that such a rapid shift would strengthen deterrence at the risk of severe economic retaliation, supply-chain disruption and alliance fractures unless the United States first secures semiconductor self-sufficiency and accelerates shipbuilding. The article concludes that the United States should remain ambiguous for the time being, as the cost of allegiance outweighs the benefits.

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Keywords: Taiwan Reunification, T rump Foreign Policy, Xi Jinping Strategy, U.S.-China Relations